Germany’s much lauded “green” energy policies continue to fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions are now up for the second year in a row. This is not exactly surprising to those of us who have looked at the simple arithmetic: shut nuclear, build coal, and replace the nuclear with renewables.
What is now even more important is that Germany appears to be on course to fail to meet its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2020 compared with its 1990 levels.
Based on the numbers in a couple of old blog posts I wrote (here and here) the 2011 nuclear phase out policy will have resulted in somewhere between 3.5 and 7% higher emissions in Germany in 2020. The upper and lower bounds here assume that nuclear was replaced by gas or coal. So, it now seems probable that environmental concerns have caused a country to fail to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets. A curious world we live in.
I might explore these numbers further in a future Energy Collective piece, if I can muster the will. Germany has become a mythical place over which tribalists fight, and writing about it is hardly worth the time. Perhaps people should be left to their illusions.